The Worries of Likelihood

   

  .... Between friends, they told me : The comparatively late rise of the theory of probability shows how hard it is to grasp, and the many paradoxes show clearly that we, as humans, lack a well grounded intuition in this matter

In probability theory there is a great deal of art in setting up the world, in solving the problem, and in applying the results back to the real world actions that will follow. -- The Art of Probability, Richart Hamming

For practical purposes we are forced to accept the awkward concept of "relatively random" meaning that with regard to the proposed use we can see no reason why they will not perform as if they were random(as the theory usually requires). This is highly subjective and is not very palatable to purists, but it is what statisticians regularly appeal to when they take "a random sample" -- they hope that any results they will have approximately the same properties as a complete counting of the whole sample space that occurs in their theory. --- Hamming on randomness. BETWEEN FRIENDS I ANSWERED: Well I disagree in a way. First assumption Mr. Hamming says that because a late rise is difficult to grasp. No, I know we did not have the technology to calculate many of the curves. Second, just because there are paradoxes we lack grounded intuition? Ha! Life itself is a paradox if you want to look at it like that, and intuition has helped us to survive as species. I suppose he is referring as art because the entree data can be subjected to opinions and not facts or subjective matters or populations that are not clearly defined. BUT there are many practical fields where probability is a very useful and powerful tool. Example: thanks to Markov chain theory we have electricity at home, number of roads per car, number of bank clerks per client... all need probability. Do you want to know if a product is within acceptance quality range? Use probability... The fact that people do not like forecast is because the lack of control they want to have about something... I just read your thoughts about Evolution and they are indeed immersed in probability... Genome is governed by probability law. We can be so accurate now that for the scale that human life is; it is enough to be in a very ample range like in the calculations for the driveless car. And about randomness it depends of the number of objects that the sample has and how it is treated, there is a need of sufficient items in the sample to counted as random, there has been many experiments to probe randomness very interesting ones maybe I shall talk to them in a video... And so, the videos went...THEN MY WONDERFUL FRIENDS TOLD ME....Randomness is in this context is subjected to a random seed key used for different cryptography algorithms. Randomness in itself is relative in nature, true randomness is possible but highly impractical in real world scenarios, like in cryptography. Entropy sources like radioactive decay, mouse clicks (not completely random though) provide the source of complete randomness.
Randomness does depend on the the number of objects but still I do not agree in this manner. For example, Binary bits can provide relative randomness for different purposes. Randomness is very interesting topic in itself, and may need a complete class of thoughtful discussion to overcome it's subdue complexities. MY ANSWER WAS.... Yes, you are right but we are talking about different range of measurements, in all those examples you are talking about the edges of randomness where you can not be sure about it. I am taking where dimensions are so big and/or small and contained (let's think that is where... Newtonian Laws can be applied). That is why even the notations get confusing and the angry statistician went mad(among other details) in the class of Intro to Statistics by Sebastian Thrun. I do not know if you took the class and saw the comments. THEY SAID: did the class, but didn't saw the comments he he.. SOMETHING HAPPENED IN THE CLASS...You saved yourself of a great deal of controversy that even the Professor gave an opinion in the Udacity Blog and I posted my opinion too in my blog. Oh! It was very dramatic at that time for me, today I really would like an harmonic understanding...

A Happy Experience, with Tremendous Empowerment for Their Students and Completely Adorable by All?

    
     Universities, centers of knowledge have been created many years ago. They have for missions to spread, among other virtues, wisdom and true in their communities. There have been many philanthropists that are or were sharing their wealth to create these fascinating places. All of them have rules, timelines, and costs. Some of them are created by national systems and there is no tuition involved, or is just symbolic.

  The poor, the isolated, and the minorities have to struggle with all the deficiencies that their trades have, before they can join without stress the full experience of higher education. Some people can deal with a big amount of stress, others don’t and that has nothing to do with their wealth, gregarious personality, or if they are part of the general population, or normal people (statistically speaking). Nevertheless it helps to have enough money to have acquired a good basic education to pursue a higher one. To be connected to find out the easiest path with the best results, and to be part of the group to work together and enjoy the synergy of learning as part of a team.

   How to know if the course, courses you are taking are going to enrich in an effective way your career? Wow! For that, I have heard so many opinions; you almost can have a book of them. Just some of them are; it doesn’t matter what courses you take as long as you know, you have connections, you must be part of the people with influences so, go to institutions where the children of the top society are. Another opinion is; go where you know the institution has more successful and prestigious alumni and/or professors. Go where you can have personalized guidance and mentoring. Go where you can have the most diverse community, go where you are the opposite of your family values, go where you can afford it, go where moral and religion is first; go as far (or as close) as your parents are. Go where they value the people’s voice. Go where you have the most parties, best installations, best dorms etc, etc, etc… When you are there;

    as a student sometimes you get into the stressful facts of a) a great deal is expected of you and b) you have no control over whether you will perform well; according to Martin Seligman. And well, that is not nice.

  Oh no! What are all those aspects, why is not simply, what are the institutions of knowledge doing?

   Besides the campuses, and personal, they have a master plan for each career. They got into that plan with some key elements; the industry, the government, the professors, and students. They plan for the future, they analyze trends, market, necessities and the most probable scenario that can occur when people graduate.

   As you can see, it is a combination of facts that can be target with accuracy, if you know your data, and you have a good stochastic method to apply; the outcome will have a reasonable, hopeful outcome. We can use the term believe in many statements explaining why an institution decides something over many options. The truth is that there is the technology and mathematical methods to be more precise than ever if we can simulate with enough and correct numbers. The future can be known with a narrow clearance; to a scale so narrow that we can almost said that we are certain of a successful career. And that is why I totally know that the technology used in Udacity to choose the classes, the professors, the amount of time expending, and the grading system is the best. Just take the class of Artificial Intelligence with Sebastian Thrun.

    As a new way of learning, or new system, data is needed. It is not sprouted randomly, they have to collect enough information to create a model, which by this time, it is very optimistic to say but perfectly reasonable to think they do.

    So, Udacity is a center of knowledge, they have rules, timelines and costs. They have philanthropists, a mission, and a virtual campus that is composed by the forums, coffee breaks, hang outs, contests, and other beautiful and useful things, to interact with their community.

     Udacity have the collaboration of not only one university but several, and the industry has a vital presence. They have a verify certification which is a key factor to acknowledge the rigor and recognition of a learned skill.

    When you are a student, you are the product of an educational institution, one of the most stressful things for a mentor, teacher, professor, or educator is the idea that…” The ability of a student to do well in a class has something to do with their class”… a quote from the book Brain Rules by John Medina.

    To solve this anguish statement people go to the statistics and if they have, like at Udacity, a pass rate of 83% surpassing many of other classes in other campuses; it is when we can dance in the rain because we know, they conquered a storm. That is a huge achievement! As a student your concerns of performance are gone, and yes, a great deal was expected from you; you have sweated it and earned it; in a controlled, wonderful, and nice environment; with an assertive amount of stress. Because think of it, you know you did it, and you feel it in your brain, nothing can change that inner satisfaction, that helps to go on and on.

    So, who are the clients in a center of knowledge? Students, their families, communities, countries, and the world are. The students have the duality of being the product and the client, this paradox come from the bare nature of knowledge which is part of the unique trait of being humans and have fun learning and developing our cortex during our existence.

   Many of these thoughts have been evolving in me for many years, due to my experience as a professor of Industrial Engineering, and as an Educator and Tutor; I think this is the time to put them down as a response to a call by Sebastian Thrun for a public discussion about Udacity offerings, and the future of higher education. For the enrolling of many, we can see it as a happy experience, with tremendous empowerment for their students and completely adorable by all Udacian’s Communities.

My Thoughts A Year Ago…

In August 2012 I was writing my thoughts while eating, and getting ready for my computer class. It was a sunny day as almost all days in OC California… I had worked in my online courses and I had this vision about what I wanted to have in the near future.

First  I imagined myself composing images, movies, songs, blogs with the perfect fit of my way of thinking. Second, I had thought that most of the time you do not see what is behind  the screen or how the traffic  in the internet is moving or if you can see who stopped by your things, besides the people that you know and commented or sent a signal that they where there. It was like a mysterious box of limited information in plain sight. Also I wanted to share with the internauts, in general, the brands, institutions, organizations, places, that wowed me to glorify and perpetuate their existence. My apps I imaged could be like my personal assistant, trainer, tutor, planner… I wanted to have my special robot to remind me, to advice me , to be my special tool for all the things I knew I will required  precision and accuracy; let’s say my Swiss Army knife of the 21 Century.

Huy! I wanted something that can count and check my calories intake; my weights, and my burning calories, predict my perfect next meal. And do the same counting and checking and predicting for all my activities; the mental and the physical ones. My robot is for me so different as it is portrayed everywhere, it is not an entity but a series of devices, or a device that can include for my body to have my vitals, and for my exercise to record my position, effort and precise movements to induce the maximum potential of my health and brain.

I went farther, while I was typing I wrote, why the typing? When it could be a device which can fetch my thoughts… all my thoughts… the deepest ones… the ones that I don’t even know I have… (Very controversial  now I see) I went on; How about if I can have a conversation with somebody else in my mind… the energy that we can save, the waist that can be avoid… We can be all so synchronized that, we actually can have space for the wilderness, time to restore Nature and pursue the evolution of societies… Well that was then. From a year to today I am totally amazed of how much it has been accomplished!

At my online school, Udacity; I just read an article where the goal is going to be, and I quote; “…the creation of  a piece of artificial intelligence that sits there, watches you learn, and helps you pick the right learning venue or task, so you’re more effective and have more pleasure.” (Sebastian Thrun)

The number of applications downloaded just in December was two billion; the most popular were Google Maps, Facebook, and You Tube. So people, like to know where they are, and where are they going. People like to socialize and communicate with friends. People like to watch videos, to learn, to buy, to entertain, to send messages, and more.

Our phones are our agendas, portal to games, music, movies, conference rooms, learning environment, physical trainer, animate our household, monitor rooms, experiment, situations… This is now; it is a huge non stopping trend. Our watches can have our vitals. Apps can take a pic of a portion of skin and send it to be analyzed for possible cancerous cells. Yes, indeed we are making progress. Maybe I have the same thoughts of many more persons that I had imaged. But I know that we are living in a singularity, so this is what we are expecting according to the analysis of trends… It is fascinating to see what we have foreseen just some months ago.

Tutor planned for Udacity

most-used-smartphone-apps

Sebastian-Thrun-on-the-future-of-learning

Oh! No! Have you seen the San Jose Newspapers!!!

Have you seen the San Jose Newspapers!!! I was happy, then a black cloud somber my horizon! :(
Oh!!! No!!! What is going on!!! Failure!!! Poor rates!!! Look at the performance!!!
Some Media and their ways of putting things....
Remediation classes… Ha! It is exactly the word that put in a very questionable position the origin of an Olympian, wonderful, and amazing set of tools that Udacity is… It is also an experiment, and the population is a very special one. For one year+ Udacity has delivered in a very concise format a huge amount of knowledge. Udacity is a place to enjoy and learn; if remediation was the challenge then you do not put unreachable constrains if you want good comments from the Press; if your objective is to experiment then go ahead and learn from your experience, and that is a success.
In Udacity or while learning in any arena you need to have time to experiment, explore, try, challenge, dare, improve your abilities; which ones… well let’s see an example; when mankind were learning to play with electronic games some 20+ years ago, first we needed to learn to press the right buttons for any special movement, then it came the combinations; after, you are able to do the series of nested combinations. Nowadays, you can easily point out who has been playing for a long time just because it came natural to them all the micro movements they need to do in the fastest precise way to win over the opponent.
The population for remediation has very different problems to deal with but, the worst pervasive one is the LACK OF TIME as I just read and concurred in Sebastian Thrun post explanation. Next to that one is the pressure to repeat a concept in certain time and with that believe that you are going to assure success. The brain doesn't work like that… it is boring and then the attention to detail is lost in an abyss of boredom. Every single person who needs remediation needs to be diagnosed exactly with the special need or with the located misunderstood concept and start from that or those, people can have many. It needs to have a systematic approach of assistance. That means to diagnose from the beginning what are you dealing with. Or at least have a history of what has been happening.
What I have learned, study and seen in the amazing wonderful universe of learning is that it needs to be INTERESTING. Not long time ago a person told me to repeat courses that I have already taken. Wow! I was furious, and I refused for a long time, then I meditated. If I have already passed them then I can look at them again in another perspective, since I do not have any pressure but my own. I am taking my time and refuel my patience to hear the same things by the same people in the same manner. Well I do not reread books, I don’t see movies twice in a regular basis, it needs to be very, very good to make me do it. It is not the same if you read a book and then you see the movie, or the play of it. Theater is magic because no performance is the same because people behave differently every time, so it is not boring. With this I want you to notice that emotions are there you can not avoid them. Once you fail something you have a sour thought about it, that is stress...
You can learn the same thing in different platforms, or formats; learn with unlimited examples, experiences, games, contexts; the rule is always pursuing to be interesting! I did not invented it, there are many studies that talk about that I just concurred from my experience.
Our knowledge behaves like an onion, it has many layers; they started to form the same day you become alive. According to your experiences is the type of knowledge you have. That is one thing.
Knowledge behaves like energy does; one person can have it or a group of persons without changing the force. The wonderful thing is that a difference of energy, it can be storage. It is not like power, or money; it is really a sharable thing. Everybody gets enriched. You have seen how a student can explain to another student the concept in a particular proper vocabulary and Eureka everything became clear.
When people are stressed, they learn like a Swiss cheese, with holes. Or like with wrinkles in their layers or with jumps between them. So, in order to have perfect onions or layers of knowledge you need to peel the onion and check where the fault is. It can be done with a one on one assistant, or with software. The quality of the remediation outcome lies in the efficiency of the model use to locate the hole and how to fix it. Who does the software? It is People. Who does the tutoring? It is People. In every single origin of knowledge the primal source is People. Who is going to hire you? Who is making jobs? Who is designing courses? Who is putting the standards or conditions to say you know something? Always, the answer is People.
So, why it is this whole debacle idea and the debate about it that the Press is taking out of proportions? Udacity is a proven source of top-notch knowledge. The good thing is that a critical mass of people understands that online education is for the good of Humanity. So, for majority and for leadership we can keep forging in the right direction for a better future. There are many links on the web talking about this with big names and/or wallets that are helping. I just read the Scientific American article of this month about Learning in the digital age. Sebastian Thrun also explained it in the Udacity Global Meetup Day, you can see it in YouTube. Thank you to all of you! I think it is an unstoppable phenomenon. People need to be reassured that everything is going to be absolutely better. And by the way, once you take your course online if you are on the remediation club, you can go back and look in a calm manner what you missed. If nobody helps you, look inside yourself maybe you will find the best answer. A good idea if you find a way to succeed is just to give feedback.
Use Udacity or some other distinct MOOC's as what they are a wonderful source of knowledge. Being a little bit dramatic you can see it as some Prometheuses are giving fire to humanity, Udacity and some of the MOOC's give knowledge to mankind. The good thing is that this time The Gods are dancing of joy because that is the way humans can prevail in the Cosmos.